My Own Political Party

Some pundits are making the argument that there are few conservatives in the Republican Party that are against a McCain nomination. I don’t really see how this is the case. According to exit polling, about 80% of voters who voted for Romney identified themselves as conservative and 75% of Huckabee voters did the same. If we take a look at the primaries and caucuses that have occurred so far, 6,571,426 Americans voted for Huckabee and Romney combined. Compare this to McCain’s total: 4,882,369.

However, since 80% of Romney voters and 75% of Huckabee voters considered themselves conservative, the total number of conservatives that DIDN’T vote for McCain is 5,136,000. This number is still larger than the numbers McCain received on his own. I have given McCain the benefit of the doubt and given him ALL the other votes from the rest of the candidates. The results:

McCain: 5,366,613
Conservatives: 5,136,000

McCain had better hope to win over a large number of these conservatives if he wishes to win the Presidency in 2008. He had also better hope that there is not a third party candidate that will draw these conservatives away from the Republican party.

NOTES: The numbers for this analysis were taken from CNN election results. The numbers may not be 100% accurate. I have opted to include both primary and caucus numbers in the results.